Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 17.718028 20.374743 23.486949 27.452790 32.447494 38.635913 4.705942e+01
2025-03-02 14.313093 17.477763 21.536081 27.281288 35.489539 47.294557 6.662930e+01
2025-03-09 12.559776 15.949557 20.567820 27.608636 38.663558 56.592386 9.120720e+01
2025-03-16 10.979941 14.311644 19.040690 26.635246 39.414468 62.168842 1.126548e+02
2025-03-23 10.009184 13.351901 18.274888 26.570836 41.489950 70.682541 1.460926e+02
2025-03-30 8.972431 12.155308 16.961048 25.333076 41.118594 74.251553 1.709343e+02
2025-04-06 8.070379 11.060777 15.661694 23.884294 39.975771 75.734560 1.916829e+02
2025-04-13 7.375331 10.215390 14.660972 22.796627 39.288595 78.035032 2.181354e+02
2025-04-20 7.485957 10.624465 15.738950 25.643859 47.543696 107.006800 4.023713e+02
2025-04-27 7.251954 10.454304 15.810766 26.582481 51.873631 128.304331 6.284309e+02
2025-05-04 6.741986 9.787644 14.942577 25.490177 50.965743 132.110905 7.502111e+02
2025-05-11 6.556274 9.646034 14.995272 26.314761 55.233968 157.950160 1.279761e+03
2025-05-18 6.233760 9.265239 14.605400 26.205762 57.205389 177.919478 2.084357e+03
2025-05-25 5.933514 8.901696 14.214836 26.043453 59.045976 200.035255 3.729491e+03
2025-06-01 5.716925 8.666541 14.042316 26.349853 62.461649 235.406253 9.628251e+03
2025-06-08 5.388651 8.210162 13.397663 25.438701 61.672654 245.943343 1.793041e+04
2025-06-15 5.177987 7.951057 13.119437 25.378377 63.789479 279.722599 9.680485e+04
2025-06-22 4.874955 7.506661 12.435591 24.218348 61.688852 280.522831 2.882081e+05
2025-06-29 4.574037 7.051897 11.702629 22.858591 58.568924 270.719013 5.786238e+05
2025-07-06 4.326040 6.683246 11.123469 21.836326 56.510843 268.635670 6.147664e+06
2025-07-13 4.436219 6.979546 11.927185 24.509757 69.700003 442.674988 NaN
2025-07-20 4.375584 6.950959 12.048003 25.389284 76.236913 586.234109 NaN
2025-07-27 4.166947 6.629481 11.516334 24.365668 73.807740 586.474627 NaN